Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, and Ukraine is the fourth largest. Of the many uncertainties concerning the direction of domestic and global wheat markets, none was more critical than the potential disruption to wheat exports if Russian troops were to invade neighboring Ukraine. “At face value, the numbers from the USDA had a bit of a negative lean to it, but one needs to be a little cautious in taking too much of a read on that because if you look at the past two years, we’re still trending the wrong way when it comes to overall wheat supply,” Brian Harris, executive director and owner, Global Risk Management, told Milling & Baking News, a sister publication of World Grain. At the same time, the USDA raised its 2022 wheat carryover by 30 million bushels, or 5%, from the December forecast to 628 million bushels, which, if realized, would be down 26% from 845 million bushels carried over in 2021, and down 51% from 1.028 billion bushels in 2020. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service estimated 34.397 million acres had been seeded to winter wheat, a 2.2% increase from 2021 and a 12.9% increase over 2020.
12 brought a measure of relief to market participants concerned about tight supplies driving wheat prices higher.
#Rain trading sides series
The series of US Department of Agriculture reports issued Jan.
Analysts in January suggested the simmering Russia-Ukraine conflict, precipitation in US hard red winter wheat country, US dollar strength, and consumer demand in year three of the global pandemic could each exert outsized influence on wheat prices in 2022. KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US - A bevy of reports released in mid-January exuded a mildly bearish outlook for US wheat, but overall contained little in the way of headline-grabbing, market-shifting news.
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